THE BIG-NAME FAVORITES: Tiger Woods (+325), Phil Mickelson (+950)
I thought of naming this the “trap” category. I can’t ever really fault a bettor for picking Tiger or Lefty, and Tiger’s value is better than he usually offers, but both golfers have some holes in their games at the moment. Tiger’s been sticking his approaches but has suffered the odd hiccup off the tee and especially with the putter. His most recent finishes – sixth at the Masters and fourth at Quail Hollow – are subpar for him. He hasn’t cracked the top 10 at Sawgrass in six starts, so I’d avoid him. Mickelson won in 2007 there but his short game isn’t strong enough to justify betting online on him at the moment.
THE SOLID PICKS: Kenny Perry (+3300), Sean O’Hair (+2500)
Perry doesn’t own Sawgrass in his golf betting career, but the name of his game is ball striking and that sets him up nicely to succeed in the Players Championship odds. Don’t be scared away just because he choked at the Masters; he’s played very well overall in 2009. Speaking of playing well, O’Hair is arguably the hottest golfer on tour right now and beat a strong field very similar to the Players’ field in winning the Quail Hollow Championship last week, so he warrants consideration at the sportsbook.
THE SLEEPERS: Brian Gay (+5000), Henrik Stenson (+4000)
Gay won the Verizon Heritage in mid-April but did so against a weak field. However, that doesn’t mean you should write him off in golf betting this weekend. He ranks among the best on tour in many accuracy categories, including driving accuracy and proximity to green, so his game is nicely tailored to Sawgrass – particularly the famous No. 17 island green. Stenson may be my favorite pick in the Players Championship odds. Not only has he played well in 2009 golf betting, with three top-threes, he also has a solid history at Sawgrass. In fact, he’s one of just three golfers with no missed cuts and more than one top-three in the Players Championship odds, so fans of sport betting online should think about taking a flier on him.