Altidore with AZ Alkmaar
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The New Mexico Lobos and the Boise State Broncos will fight on Saturday at Bronco Stadium. Yes, we’ll admit to suggesting a lean earlier on TCU laying 40 points against a team (UNLV) whose road supporters are so broke they couldn’t even afford to get arrested.
However, did you seriously expect to find us laying more points in this game (48) than the Broncos are averaging this betting season (40.9)? In fact, the Blue Man Group has only surpassed that number once in its last fi ve games (52-35 at San Diego State) and stands 2-4 ATS as favorites of more than 40 points.
However, with that being said, the Broncos are 6-2 ATS as LHG chalk while the ‘Wobos’ are 1-6 ATS in the BSNblog stats figured the Bulldogs might not get a friendly sendoff as they bid adieu to the WAC for the MWC.
It’s rather ironic that this season-ender takes place in Mountain West Country as the Aztecs get a fi rst-hand look at their new neighbors.
These two California natives haven’t met in nine years and we’re not sure that Hill is happy to see the Aztecs again as he has yet to grab the cash in three career matchups (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS). Fresno’s 1-5 ATS log in LRG’s compared to Diego’s 6-2 ATS mark in LHG’s mark sure has us giddy, though.
With the Bulldogs’ four-year bowl streak snapped, and the Aztecs needing two more wins to match last season’s 9-4 record, we can only look one way tonight – and that’s to the south of California. No fun in the sun for the Bulldogs today.
Sportsbooks currently have the Broncos listed as 48½-point favorites against the New Mexico, and the game's total is sitting at 61.
New Mexico most recently:
When playing in December are 1-6
When playing on turf are 0-10
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing within the conference are 2-8
Boise State most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 8-2
Online Betting OverviewTebowmania keeps rolling right along as Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos found a way to beat the San Diego Chargers in week 12. But you have to look a little deeper at the Tebow magic to uncover its secrets. With the notable exception of the incredibly impressive victory over the Oakland Raiders in week nine, the Broncos have been riding a streak against sub-par teams with terrible offenses. Nowhere in the Tebow lineage will you find the Packers, Lions or Saints. Tebow actually faced the Lions in week eight and was pounded 45-10. It is the Denver defense that is winning these games. A quarterback with ability would have made everyone of these wins a blowout. Tebow turns them into overtime thrillers.
The price per head Vikings’ fans are curious to see where the Minnesota fortunes lie after the 2012 draft. Christian Ponder will be given a second chance at being the Minnesota starting quarterback in 2012 if only because of the conditions under which he won the pay per head starting job in the first place. After an incredibly abbreviated training camp, Ponder watched as veteran Donovan McNabb started the season. After four weeks of less than great play from McNabb, the Vikings turned to Ponder. After an extended stint as the Vikings’ starter, it is easy to say that Ponder is a bust. But Minnesota will give the kid an entire offseason and training camp to improve before making that determination.
Denver Broncos
The Denver offense is 31st in the league in passing and 25th overall. No matter how much magic a team has going for it, those numbers will eventually start to cause problems. Despite a quarterback that can only play effectively for five minutes a game and a head coach that won’t battle for a half yard in overtime, the Denver defense has managed to get better and better each week. A 5 dimes review of the Bronco’s defense shows a unit that has continually set up Tim Tebow for game-winning drives and Tebow can only capitalize some of the time. Tebowmania will die out when Tebow starts losing. But that won’t be this week.
Minnesota Vikings
People forget that the Vikings are getting hammered by injuries. Things are so bad that defensive end Jared Allen had to take over as the long-snapper when regular long-snapper Cullen Loeffler was injured. It is just one in a long list of injuries that have conspired to make the Vikings non-competitive. All-pro running back Adrian Peterson is gone for what appears to be the rest of the season, but the Vikings still battled in week 12 against the Falcons. But, in the end, there just isn’t enough in Minnesota to stop Tebow and the Broncos.
The Bottom Line
The NFL is seeing a lot of surprises in the AFC this year and the Broncos are definitely one of them. Tebowmania could be a fixture this season in the AFC, but don’t look for it to change the course of NFL history.
BSNblog Pick: Denver Broncos
While there has been some separation in the NFC, it remains a mystery which teams in the AFC are ready to contend for a playoff spot, and which teams are destined to miss out on the big dance. The Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, and Cincinnati Bengals have all looked like contenders at one point or another, but as we reach week 12 of the NFL regular season, they still haven’t managed to distinguish themselves from the rest of the sports betting pack.Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (-8)
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
While the Jets’ struggles are undoubtedly the bigger surprise of the two AFC East rivals set to clash this Sunday, that doesn’t mean that Buffalo’s collapse isn’t significant. A Bills’ team that opened the year with five wins through their first seven games has now lost three straight, including two against division rivals, and a second loss to New York will all but eliminate them from postseason contention. Unlike at the beginning of the season when Buffalo was forcing turnovers and capitalizing with an efficient offense, Ryan Fitzpatrick and company are now the ones turning the ball over while the defense has had trouble stopping anyone with 79 points allowed in their past two games alone. Meanwhile, the Jets’ supposedly elite defense has struggled to remain a top-10 unit, and their inability to prevent Denver Broncos’ quarterback Tim Tebow to score a late touchdown in a 17-13 loss last Thursday was the exclamation mark on a tough year. The fact that quarterback Mark Sanchez and the Jets’ offense wasn’t able to put that game away earlier is another story altogether, and while New York should be able to get the job done this Sunday at home, it is hard to ignore such a big sportsbook reviews spread for a team that has been so inconsistent this year.
NFL Betting Picks : Buffalo Bills + 8
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
Making the postseason in the NFL often comes down to being able to win the games that you are expected to, and that is something that the Bengals have been able to do all year. While consecutive losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are proof that Cincinnati is not ready to compete with the best in the AFC, they have put themselves in position to have a chance by winning games they are favored in, including a 27-17 win against the Cleveland Browns in their season opener. Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton has progressed well as the unquestioned leader on offense, but it is the Bengals’ defense that has allowed them to remain competitive in every game. Cincinnati currently leads the AFC Wild Card race but cannot afford a third straight loss against a division rival, but that shouldn’t be an issued against a Cleveland team that has lost three of their last four and haven’t recorded a pay head victory against a team with a winning record so far this season.
NFL Betting Pick: Cincinnati Bengals – 7.5
*Yanks Abroad: Agbossoumonde Remains Optmistic
Sports Betting OverviewNeither the Arizona Cardinals nor the St. Louis Rams are in the running for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes as the Indianapolis Colts have a lock on that first draft spot at 0-10. The Cardinals came into this season with some very high expectations. Even though starting running back Tim Hightower was lost to the Washington Redskins, the Cardinals still have running back Beanie Wells. New quarterback Kevin Kolb was supposed to create a prolific duo with wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. But a weak offensive line has kept Kolb injured for part of the season and running for his life the other part. Beanie Wells has also had injury problems that have limited his effectiveness. It has not been the year the Cardinals were expecting.
The St. Louis Rams fell even further than the Cardinals in 2011. The price per head sports fans in St. Louis were genuinely excited about the prospects of improving on a 2010 that saw the Rams challenge for the NFC West title. But quarterback Sam Bradford has not developed as hoped, and the St. Louis offensive line is even worse than Arizona’s. The price per head bookie action in St. Louis was supposed to see the Rams threatening the 49ers for the NFC West divisional title. But the Rams are averaging only 12 points a game on offense while giving up an average of nearly 25 points a game on defense. That difference is not going to win you a lot of games in the NFL.
Arizona Cardinals
A bodog review of the Cardinals’ offense shows a unit that is capable of moving the ball but incapable of scoring points. Kevin Kolb’s injury problems have limited him to only seven games this season, and in those seven games Kolb has thrown only eight touchdown passes. To make matters worse, Kolb has also thrown eight interceptions. Back-up quarterback John Skelton has three starts this season and he has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions. The Cardinals want to believe that Kolb is the answer at quarterback. But until Kolb can show a sustained ability to put the ball into the endzone, he remains part of the problem as opposed to being an answer.
St. Louis Rams
Second-year quarterback Sam Bradford is definitely suffering from the sophomore jinx. He has started eight out of the Rams’ 10 games so far, and only has five touchdown passes. Last season, Bradford gave all of the NFL fans in St. Louis a reason to hope by throwing 18 touchdown passes in 16 games. But St. Louis fans conveniently forget that Bradford also threw 15 interceptions last season and has thrown five interceptions this season. The Rams are going to need more production from the quarterback position if it wants to win games this year.
The Bottom Line
When the Arizona Cardinals are playing well, it can be a good football team. The St. Louis Rams have not given any indication that it is capable of being a good football team under any conditions. This will be a mess to watch, but the Arizona fans should enjoy the outcome.
BSNblog Pick: Arizona Cardinals
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*US MNT 2011 Campaign CompletedAll Times EST.
*John to recharge despite opportunities to train in Europe
The NFC playoff picture has changed dramatically over the past four weeks, and while teams like the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys have really struggled at times this season, they still have the time to turn things around just as quickly as they fell in to their current slumps. With so much power at the top there is little room for error the rest of the way for the true contenders, and if a team like Detroit is going to be classified in that group, they simply have to break out of their sports betting funk this weekend.Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions (-7)
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
The Lions were battered and bruised by a physical Bears’ team last weekend, ironically in a similar fashion to the way that their defense had beaten up some of the opposing teams earlier in the year. At 6-3, the Lions are technically still the frontrunners for an NFC Wild Card position, but after losing three of their last four betonline games they cannot afford to slide any further, especially with how tough their upcoming schedule is. Detroit will host the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers before making the trip south to face Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, so this Sunday’s home date against the 2-7 Panthers is a must-win situation. Carolina’s offense can score a ton, so it will be up to Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson to make sure that they win what should be an offensive battle.
NFL Betting Pick: Detroit Lions -7
Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) @ Washington Redskins
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
The Cowboys and Redskins are two teams heading in opposite directions at this point in the season, as Washington has lost five straight while Dallas has put together consecutive wins to climb above the .500 mark and to within reach of the division-leading New York Giants. The Cowboys will look to extend their winning streak to three after blowing away the Buffalo Bills in their strongest performance of the year, and this one could provide a similar NFL result considering how poorly the Redskins have played.
NFL Betting Pick: Dallas Cowboys – 7.5
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (-2)
Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
In a division that features three teams with three wins or less, it’s hard to figure out how all four teams are coming off wins. That will change this week for at least one as the Seahawks look to extend their string of consecutive wins against St. Louis, who overcame the Cleveland Browns 13-12 for a hard-earned road win. Many feel that the Rams are better than their record indicates, and while injuries and inconsistent play have hurt them this season, they have the chance to prove they can still compete with consecutive home dates against the Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. While Seattle has somehow managed to put together consecutive pay head wins, they have never been a great team away from home.
BSNblog Pick: St. Louis Rams - 2
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*Post-Match Quotes: USA vs. Slovenia
Online Betting OverviewBuffalo Bills fans knew that, eventually, the lack of a quality defense would catch up with the team. The Bills got off to a great start but, as seems to be the custom, as the season wears on the Bills fall further and further out of the playoff hunt. The difference is that, this season, the Bills were at least in the playoff picture up to mid-season. But the Buffalo Bills defense is completely incapable of stopping the run or defending the pass. When the defense is unable to stop the other team’s offense then that puts the Buffalo offense in a desperate situation. The Bills’ offense is forced to abandon its game plan to compensate for the lack of a defense. That is usually when the wheels start coming off for the Bills.
The Miami Dolphins hate these kinds of seasons. Last year, the Bills traveled to Miami for the annual Buffalo-Miami December football game. But this year, the Dolphins have to travel to snowy Buffalo in December. But between now and the December game, the two teams meet for the Miami home game right before Thanksgiving. The Miami Dolphins have won two games in a row and are feeling pretty good about itself. The Buffalo Bills fit the profile of a price per head team that is destined to lose to the Dolphins. The Bills are struggling, unable to play good defense and are out of its offensive rhythm. While the Bills need this game to cling to its slim playoff hopes, the Dolphins need this game to hold on to head coach Tony Sparano’s job.
Buffalo Bills
The price per head bookmaking services are quick to blame Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for the Bills recent troubles because the guy with the brand new $10 million per year contract is an easy target. But none of the Bills’ recent woes can be laid on Fitzpatrick or anyone else on the Buffalo offense. The offense is trying to compensate for the fact that the defense is unable to stop the run or the pass. In week 10, the Dallas Cowboys played offense as though the Buffalo defense was not even on the field. The Buffalo offense is forced to change its game plan to try and hold on to the ball when that is not how the Bills’ offense is most successful. The Bills will have the same problem in this game.
Miami Dolphins
It is a betonline scam to assume that quarterback Matt Moore is the reason why the Dolphins have started winning. The Dolphins just needed a quarterback that did not give the ball away to the other defense. Chad Henne caused turnovers and Matt Moore does not. Right now, that is why the Miami Dolphins are able to win football games.
The Bottom Line
The NFL schedule is not being kind to the Bills for the next two weeks as Buffalo has two tough divisional games on the road in a row. If the Bills lose these two games, the playoffs are pretty much out of the question. But, then again, the Bills’ fans are getting used to not seeing post-season football.
BSNblog Free Pick: Miami Dolphins
*U.S. Men's National Team Set for Match against Slovenia
* * *
Now, Slovenia.
I'll be honest – I don't know a ton about the Eastern European side. Last year's World Cup team, under the instruction of Matjaz Kek, wasn't at all dissimilar to Bob Bradley and Bruce Arena's U.S. teams. They deployed a similar bunker-and-counter 4-4-2 with a little more technical ability but a bit less overall punch. This will be the first match coached by new manager Slavisa Stonjanovic (whose name, if I'm being honest, was just copy+pasted from the team website), so it remains to be seen how the side will play under new direction.
I know Robert Koren, Slovenia's captain and number 10, was left off this roster for no discernible reason I've been able to track down. Valter Birsa and Zlatan Ljubijankic, who each tallied first half goals against the States in Johannesburg last June, figure to be involved I would think, as will Chievo Verona defenders Bojan Jokic and Bostjan Cesar. But that's all the surmising I'll do. As we've seen under Klinsmann, coaching changes can sometimes spell big personnel and tactical decisions.From the U.S., Slovenia presents a very nice opportunity. Though incapable of replicating the dynamic tour de force France enacted Friday, Slovenia is a talented side with it's share of players in top flight leagues and a fantastic goalkeeper in Udinese's Samir Handanovic. This is probably the fourth-best side the Yanks have faced thus far (coming in behind Mexico, France and Belgium) but it's a stout squad who will be playing at home and trying to impress a new coach. Should be pretty competitive.
How about some predicty stuff?The lineup
I can't imagine we see sweeping changes from Friday's roster. Here's what I expect.
Howard
Cherundolo - Goodson – Bocanegra – Chandler
Beckerman
Edu – Dempsey
Johnson – Altidore – Shea
The lone change from Friday's roster is Fabian Johnson's schalten (did I use that correctly) with Danny Williams, whose run – or lack thereof – or the right flank ought be over. Johnson deserves a look. Bocanegra is a lock for hist 100th cap (WOOOHOOO!). Shea, with a little more help from Chandler, should find more space on the left in the attacking third. And can somebody – somebody – please tee one up for Jozy Altidore? It doesn't even have to be a brilliant ball or anything – he's proven with AZ this season a capability to score every which way – just give him something. Dude's been working hard.I'm using my unused word credit from not talking at length about the U.S.'s struggle in attack earlier here and, for no real good reason, posting the lineup I'd like to see featured instead.
Hamid
Williams
Johnson – Altidore – Shea
Give Hamid a run out – he's been in every Klinsmann camp and is missing out on U-23's first get together for this. Let him have his first cap. Also: Gooch, man. Poor guy was semi-culpable for both Slovenia goals last year – the first when he failed to close Birsa down above the box and the second when he kept Ljubijankic onside – and probably wants to exercise some Gooch demons now that he's fit and in good form. Plus, from a more practical standpoint, he's more equipped (to put it lightly) to deal with Slovenia's surprising physicality than Goodson (see: Loic Remy). Danny Williams, after working his ass off to little avail the last three matches out of position, deserves a chance to impress in his place of choice and Michael Bradley, well, look: I know his flaws are many – I know he plays too many negative passes and commits himself to too many tackles beyond his assignment, but I can't imagine the team could be worse with him in for Mo. And he put in a truly fantastic shift against the Green Dragons (a little mad this is the first time I've worked their fantastic nickname in) last year.The proceedings
As previously stated, Slovenia is no France, but its certainly no CONCACAF minnow. The defense will be tough to break down, particularly the way Klinsmann wants to attack – remember the three goals (I'm counting Edu's because, for unofficial, hypothetical purposes, it was a goal) the U.S. scored last year came on long ball, long ball, set piece. That's not how Klinsmann wants to play. Again, maybe Slovenia will come out differently under the new coach, but, unless he benches already-established Serie A defenders, the personnel will still be strong.
If a goal is to come, I'm thinking it will need to be set up (or maybe scored) by a moment of brilliance from Dempsey or Shea – Altidore will probably be busy holding the ball up and making distracting runs. Dempey and Shea, I think, will be the key men. I can't imagine Slovenia will press as high up the field as did France, meaning (presumably) Beckerman and Edu should have plenty of time and space to link up to attacking players (I expect Edu to be lured up often in hopes of catching him out on a counter). It will be that final pass, I think, that the Green Dragons will make elusive (unlike France who just didn't really feel like letting the U.S. have the ball at all). Shea and Dempsey have the speed (the former) and the craft (the latter) to unlock good defenses, but they'll need to produce something real neat to do so against Slovenia.Much as I'd like to see Klinsmann's second win and the U.S.'s first in Europe since Poland in 2008, I can't predict as much with real honesty. Slovenia is difficult to unlock and each player on the field will be working to impress the new coach. I think one swift Green Dragon counterattack in the second half will decide it a la Ecuador.
Slovenia 1-0 U.S.
