By now, most UFC 102 fight card bettors have already made their picks…on the main card, that is. The undercards often have the best fights and, better yet, can offer you good sportsbook value. Let’s break down a few of the key undercard bouts for this Saturday. Ed Herman (15-7) vs Aaron Simpson (5-0)
UFC 102 odds: Herman -140, Simpson +110
Though Ed Herman once flashed serious potential in the Octagon, he’s nothing more than a gatekeeper at his point. Sometimes, he slams the door shut on that gate – he dominated David Loiseau to stop his UFC comeback bid and he’ll hope to do the same against Aaron Simpson. Overall, it’s pretty easy to predict Herman’s fight results; match up him with any “legit” talent and he loses. Demian Maia, Alan Belcher, Jason McDonald and Kendall Grove all walked through him.
While we don’t know much about Aaron Simpson’s value yet, he’s started his career impressively, winning all five of his bouts by knockout. While Herman will be his toughest test yet, Simpson should prevail and start climbing the middleweight ladder. He one of the better sports picks of the night.
Betting services recommend: Simpson
Gabriel Gonzaga (10-4) vs Chris Tuchscherer (17-1-1)
UFC 102 odds: Gonzaga -360, Tuchscherer +285
Sticking with the gatekeeper theme, Gabriel Gonzaga epitomizes that role. He’s far removed from the No. 1 heavyweight contender status he earned with his lucky kick against Mirko Cro Cop. Since his recent losses came against tough competition – Randy Couture, Fabricio Werdum and Shane Carwin – we can still consider Gonzaga a “tough” opponent for anyone looking to make a name for himself in the UFC. As far as UFC debuts go, Chris Tuchscherer has a difficult assignment. You don’t get much value for him, but the smart money is on Gonzaga.
Betting services recommend: Gonzaga
Justin McCully (9-4-2) vs Mike Russow (11-1)
UFC 102 odds: McCully +210, Russow -270
Good on odds makers for making Russow the favorite and not jumping on Justin McCully simply because he’s a “name.” Russow is making his UFC debut but he looks promising. He’s a big guy at 265 pounds and he’s submitted eight fighters in his 11 wins with two knockouts to boot. McCully doesn’t knock guys out, so he has to rely on using his body leverage to set up submissions. That’s a tall order considering he’s listed at 25 pounds lighter than Russow.
Betting services recommend: Russow
