By Evan Ream
- USA – 308 million
- Mexico – 112 million
- Honduras – 8 million
- Costa Rica – 4 million
- Jamaica – 2.8 million
- Trinidad and Tobago – 1.3 million
Ever since the World Cup switched to its modern format (32 teams, generally with 3.5 berths for CONCACAF) these are the teams from CONACACAF that have qualified for the World Cup. As you can see, none of these countries outside the top two have a significant population that will allow them to consistently turn out quality players, making quality competition in the region not always a given. Canada has 34 million people.
Last night, Canada were dominated by the USMNT for most of the game and ended up losing 2-0 in what was a fair result. Though their current side is nothing to get excited about, the possibility of what we could see in the future is exciting.
Let me start off by saying that though they have 34 million people, I’m not expecting Canada to turn into Argentina or Spain (countries with similar populations) overnight. What I am expecting, or at least hoping, is for the emergence of MLS in Canada and the growing popularity of the sport to push Canada into being a legitimate third rival to Mexico and USA. It is my belief that before the USMNT will win the World Cup, Canada will need to qualify for one.
The last hexagonal (final round of World Cup qualifying) looked like this:
USA (qualified)
Mexico (qualified)
Honduras (qualified)
Costa Rica (Lost in playoff to Uruguay)
El Salvador (won just 2 games)
Trinidad and Tobago (won just 1 game)
This left USA with about 4 quality challenges (home and away to Mexico, away to Honduras, away to Costa Rica). I know USA tied El Salvador away and Costa Rica at home, but neither of those games should have been as hard as they were. My point (I promise I’ll get to one) is that, imagine if you took out Trinidad and Tobago and added Australia. Why Australia? Consider their similarities in population (22 million and 34 million), Per Capita GDP ($39,699 and $39,057) and the place where soccer rates as their countries favorite sport (3rd and 2nd); we have ourselves a direct comparison!
So, imagine if Australia was in the hexagonal. USA would be given two extra competitive games per cycle as well as create a natural rivalry. They would be pushed by two different teams instead of just one and all three powers would improve as a result. I think Canada can become Australia in terms their ability to play soccer. If USA then had legitimate competition more often, it could push them over the top, or at least to the top. Don’t believe me? Consider this: Mexico has never won the World Cup. They have 112 million people, soccer is their favorite sport, and they have great youth development systems (they won the U-17 World Cup in 2005). So why have they never won the World Cup? A lack of competition. Canada will give us competition, and that is all we are asking it to do.
Evan Ream is a contributor to Yanks Abroad Video Highlights. He also writes a weekly column for The SACK Lunch Blog. Evan welcomes your comments and questions, he can be reached at reame@sou.edu. You can follow him on twitter @EvanReam
