Why USA NEED to Win the Gold Cup

By Evan Ream

England

USA

Slovenia

Algeria

This was probably the easiest group USA could have gotten at the 2010 World Cup. England (or possibly Italy) was probably the worst seed other than South Africa; Slovenia was definitely not one of the better non-seeded European teams; and Algeria was probably the worst African team. USA won that group; their first group win since 1930. USA will not always be so lucky to get this kind of group, but it is possible for them to do it, or even get an easier group. It should not be a goal for USA to qualify for the World Cup anymore; that is a given. USA’s goal should be to get a seed. With a seed USA has a better chance of getting an easier group, and thus a better chance of winning their group and playing a winnable game in the Round of 16 (all games are winnable, but some games are more winnable than others).

In the last World Cup, the top seven teams in the FIFA World Rankings as well as the host Country were granted seeds. The FIFA World Rankings are a convoluted process that few completely understand. Currently Croatia, Norway, Greece, Slovenia, Russia, and Australia are ahead of USA in the rankings despite FIFA’s “emphasis” on recent results. Here is what I understand about the rankings:

· You get three points for a win, two points for a penalty kick win, one point for a draw, and one point for a penalty kick loss.

· Each of these points are multiplied by a certain number depending on the competition as well as the strength of the opponent.

· The multipliers are: 1x for a friendly game, 2.5x for a World Cup or Continental Cup (Euro, Gold Cup, etc...) game, 3x for Continental or Confederations Cup, and 4x for a World Cup.

· That number is then multiplied by the 200 minus the opponent’s current world ranking divided by 100. For example if USA were to beat the Netherlands who are number two in the world, their win would be multiplied by (200-2)/100 or 1.98

As you can see, if you understand my abbreviated version of the FIFA World Rankings formula (I’m not sure if I even did) it is better to beat better teams and beat them in a higher competition. This formula allows for teams like Norway, that haven’t qualified for a major competition since 2000, to achieve the number 11 ranking in the World. The best way for USA to improve their ranking is to qualify for the Confederations Cup.

USA doesn’t get very many games with high multipliers against high level competition due to the lack of quality teams in the area. After Mexico, the CONCACAF team with the highest ranking is Honduras at 48 (who have an aging squad and are unlikely to maintain this high of a ranking) and Jamaica at 55. CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers just won’t get it done if USA wants a seed. If USA (currently ranked 22^nd, 197 points behind the coveted eighth ranking) want to make up 14 spots in three years, it will have to do something like this:

2011: Beat Canada (76), Panama (67), and Guadeloupe (not a FIFA member) in the CONCACAF Gold Cup Group Stage, Beat Guatemala (124) or El Salvador (87) in the Quarterfinals, Beat Honduras (48), Jamaica (55), or Canada (76) in the Semifinals, and Beat Mexico (28) in the Final. Advance to the 2013 Confederations Cup.

2012: Finish first in their qualifying group.

2013. Finish first in their qualifying group, win the 2013 CONCACAF Gold Cup, and do as well as possible in the 2013 Confederations Cup

Mexico got a seed in the 2006 World Cup and ended up with this group:

Mexico

Portugal

Iran

Angola

Assuming USA gets a seed for 2014 their group could end up, at the best, like this:

USA

Random second tier European team (Slovenia, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine, Greece, etc…)

Random bad Asian team or New Zealand* (Iran, Saudi Arabia, North Korea)

Random bad African team (Angola, Algeria, whichever random African team qualifies)

*CONCACAF and Asian teams have been traditionally in the same pot, so if USA were to get a seed this would happen for sure.

At the very worst their group could look like this:

USA

1^st tier European team that slipped in the rankings (Portugal, Italy, etc…)

Good Asian team (Japan, South Korea, Australia)

Good African team (Ivory Coast, Ghana)

The second scenario is much less likely than the first.

The best chance for USA to make a deep run in the World Cup would be if they were a seeded team. In order to be a seeded team, they need a high FIFA ranking. In order to get a high FIFA Ranking, they need to play at the Confederations Cup so they can play teams like Spain (1), Brazil (3), Japan (14), (and just a guess at the four other teams that will make it), Argentina (5), Netherlands (2), Ghana (15), and New Zealand (60) and boost their FIFA Ranking.

Of course FIFA could just decide to change the way the seeds are handed out for no reason (this has happened before) making all this for naught, but USA can’t worry about that. USA should do all that is in their power to get a seed. The start to doing this is winning THIS CONCACAF Gold Cup. Good luck, boys.

Evan Ream is a contributor to Yanks Abroad Video Highlights. He also writes a weekly column for The SACK Lunch Blog. Evan welcomes your comments and questions, he can be reached at reame@sou.edu. You can follow him on twitter @EvanReam