Every sportsbook will be a bit busier than normal this week as the NFL hosts three Thanksgiving games this Thursday. Let’s get a head start with a Thanksgiving Day NFL pick and an early peek at Sunday’s action. New York Giants (-6.5) @ Denver Broncos
Thursday, November 26, 8:20 p.m. ET
The luster has quickly worn off Josh McDaniels and the upstart Denver Broncos, who defied the NFL odds with a 6-0 start only to lose four straight games. When it rains, it pours; Kyle Orton is battling injury and not guaranteed to play for a second straight week, Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno had a shoving match on the sidelines during Denver’s blowout loss on Sunday, and the Broncos suddenly can’t stop the run. They’ve allowed at least 174 rushing yards in three straight games.
New York’s power running game should give Denver plenty of trouble and their aggressive pass rush will terrorize either Orton or Chris Simms. Even if the Broncos’ contain Eli Manning, the Giants will dominate every other facet of the game.
NFL betting pick: Giants -6.5
Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 29, 1:00 p.m. ET
In theory, the Dolphins should win this game, right? They’re clearly the better team and their No. 4 rushing offense should wreak havoc on the Bills’ No. 31 rushing defense. However, savvy NFL picks makers know to expect the unexpected and there’s reason to believe the Bills can pull an upset this week.
First off, Miami is making a long road trip from its nice, cozy climate to frigid Buffalo, which is long overdue for some snow after a surprisingly mild fall. The warm-to-cold weather adjustment never treats players from southern teams well. Secondly, the Dolphins just lost nose tackle Jason Ferguson for the season to a torn quad and their run defense may suffer in the short term, opening up holes for Fred Jackson and maybe Marshawn Lynch. Thirdly, Terrell Owens exploded last week; was it a coincidence that he did so in his first game under a new coach? Now he faces a very suspect Dolphins secondary.
Lastly, there’s the rivalry factor; no matter how mismatched a rivalry game seems, there’s always the possibility that emotion wills a team to victory. We should thus take a flier on the Bills this weekend.
NFL betting pick: Bills +3
