If you bet horses, wouldn’t the Iowa Hawkeyes be that upstart filly who jumps out to an early lead and throws everyone for a loop? Normally, we expect that horse to fall back in the pack – Iowa can’t run the table, right? – but, every once in a while, the horse leads wire to wire (remember Utah in 2008?). Let’s forecast the next big college football game for Iowa. (11) Iowa Hawkeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, October 17, 12:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook favorite: Wisconsin -2.5
Iowa keeps shocking the world with big wins, the biggest of which was probably a road win over Penn State and the most recent of which was a squeaker against Michigan. The Hawkeyes win with defense first, cracking the national top 20 in fewest points allowed. Tyler Sash has been one of the country’s best coverage defensive backs and Jeremiha hunter is emerging as a do-it-all linebacker; he had 12 tackles against Michigan.
Iowa isn’t perfect on offense but does enough to win. Ricky Stanzi gets burned for his risk taking sometimes but usually manages the game and protects the ball when it’s most important. He has a deep corps of receivers to throw to and consistent support from Adam Robinson, who averages 4.9 yards per carry.
Wisconsin can almost match Iowa defensively, as it showed when it stymied Terrell Pryor in the passing game against Ohio State last week. However, the Badger secondary is still beatable in a bad matchup and there’s a good chance Stanzi will take a shot or two downfield to try and exploit that problem. Most sports picks experts expect that to happen.
The Badgers have a great running game led by John Clay, the nation’s 11th-leading rusher, but he can’t be particularly effective unless quarterback Scott Tolzien steps up his play. He struggled against Ohio State and essentially cost them the game by throwing two interceptions for touchdowns. He has to keep Iowa honest; otherwise, Hunter and the interior “D” will have a feeding frenzy on Clay.
Iowa has no easy task in Wisconsin but I think they can eke out another win on the strength of their superior defense and more reliable offense. Bet on the Hawkeyes.
Betting services recommend: Iowa +2.5
